Mathematical Economics and Mathematical Finance
Subject: Econometrics Modeling for the Real Estate Industry
Abstract: This research program at MIT focuses on Econometrics, more specifically including descriptive statistics, modeling construction, and numerical computation regarding econometrics, which is based on an ongoing project. Especially, several classical methods related to econometrics in decision- making process will be detailly introduced, such as OLS, MNL, Time Series Analysis, BP neural network, PCA, etc. Whilst some commonly used mathematical software package for econometrics such as MATLAB, SPSS will also introduced in the course of the project. Moreover, the research apprentics will introduced the usage of EndNote, a commercial reference management software package, used to manage bibliographies and references when writing essays and articles. Overall, by attending this program, the apprentics will have a large improvement in discovering, analyzing and solving practical economic problems from the econometrics perspective, that are closely related to their future studies.
Session 1-2: Housing Demand Forecasting Model
Highlights: The indicators that contribute to the housing demand include economic, social, administrative factors, as well as the the local regional factors in a particular area. In this session, the apprentics are required to analyze and develop a set of housing demand indicators. For housing demand analysis, new methods are worthy of investigating and testing for this case, as the methodological process is a continuous one; where potential innovation exists, and frequent updates are required. In this study, the apprentics are required to build an innovative and systematic methodology, as a valuable tool to perform the housing demand forecasting model.
Task 1-2: Developing a set of contributing indicators for housing demand; Building a housing demand forecasting model.
Session 3-4: Housing Supply Model
Highlights: In the real estate market, the effective supply refers to the fact that the real estate provided by the developers needs to meet the needs of consumers. In this session, the apprentics are required to analyze and develop a set of housing supply indicators. Based on the data collection of the indicators, the apprentics are required to build a suitable model to analyze the housing supply.
Task 3-4: Developing a set of contributing indicators for housing supply; Building a housing supply model.
Session 5-6: The relationship between the real estate industry and other industries of the national economy
Highlights: National economic activity is a complex system composed of different industries. There are extensive, complex and close links between industries. This economic link is also called industry association. The development of each industry will have different degrees of chain reaction to the development of other industries, thus affecting the overall coordinated development of the national economy. In this session, the apprentics are required to perform the correlation analysis of different industries. Also, they need to build a model to
Task 5-6: Correlation analysis for different industries; Building a model to determine the special contributing factor of the real estate industry.
Session 7-8: Modeling the Real Estate Industry Development Trend
Highlights: Similar to the broader economy, commercial real estate is a cyclical market, i.e.,Recovery, Expansion, Hyper Supply, Recession. In this session, the apprentics should find indicators related to the real estate industry trend. Besides, they should build a model to reflect the relationship between the the real estate industry trend and the indicators.
Task 7-8: Selecting the suitable indicators; Building a trend model.
Session 9-10: Analysis on the Coordination of Sustainable Development of the Real Estate Industry
Highlights: In real estate industry investment environment unable to ensure sustainability without conformity of other economic sectors with the criteria of sustainable development. Financial and environmental risk analysis identified the key factors influencing sustainability of real estate industry and proposes environmentally friendly solutions for robust economic growth within the industry. In this session, the apprentics will perform an analysis on the coordination of sustainable development of the real estate industry. A systemtical sustainable development coordination model should also be outlined.
Task 9-10: Modeling sustainable development coordination of the real estate industry.
Session 11: Future Housing Price Forecasting
Highlights: Housing price involves multifarious economic interest, including government, the developers, ordinary people, etc. Accurate forecasting for future housing price is very significant for socioeconomic development and national lives. In this session, a systemticl approach will presented in housing price forecasting.
Task 11: Modeling the future housing price forecasting.
Session 12: Final presentation
Highlights: The research apprentics will be required to present a specific econometrics modeling assigned by the mentor. The presentation should cover all the necessary contents, including data (preparation, cleaning), methodology (model construction), and results (discussion and conclusion). The presentation will be organized as the form of international conference. Some PhD candidates and/or Post- doctors will be present there as reviewers.
Task 12: Make a poster as a sample for future presentation.